Overnight, spot gold prices surged significantly, reaching a daily high of $2,631.43 and a low of $2,605.79, ultimately closing at $2,621.68. Today, in the Asian market, gold continues to rise and is currently hovering around $2,637.

More uncertainties arise!

Overnight, the three major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.14%, the S&P 500 down by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.05%.

In terms of news, the U.S. September inflation data exceeded expectations across the board, drawing market attention.

On the evening of October 10th Beijing time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI in September rose by 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.3%; the U.S. core CPI in September rose by 3.3% year-on-year, also higher than the expected and previous 3.2%.

After the data was announced, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Analysts pointed out that this inflation data, which exceeded expectations, could intensify the discussion on whether the Federal Reserve should cut rates by 25 basis points in November or pause the rate cuts.

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Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist referred to as the "new Fedwire," wrote that the U.S. September CPI inflation report was mixed, and the path to cooling inflation continues to be bumpy.

However, Goldman Sachs stated that next month's employment data is the key to the Federal Reserve's easing policy. Moreover, on Thursday, several senior officials from the Federal Reserve spoke. Most of them believe that although U.S. inflation has not yet reached 2%, they are confident that inflation is moving in the right direction and are not too concerned about the September CPI inflation report being higher than expected.

Compared to the destructive power of the data, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting released before the CPI announcement were the real "game-changer" that cooled the market's enthusiasm.The minutes of the meeting, spanning 17 pages, contain numerous significant viewpoints that negate and disagree with the 50 basis point rate cut in September. Many attendees not only opposed the previous 50 basis point rate cut but also expressed support for only a 25 basis point reduction in the next few cuts, arguing that this pace is the normal and economically rational approach.

The perspectives from the September meeting, combined with the latest economic data, have drastically altered expectations for rate cuts, which is not good news for the global capital markets.

For the US stock market, the sustained upward trend has even led some major Wall Street bears to change their stance. J.P. Morgan's Chief Global Equity Strategist, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, stated that the US economy has shown surprising resilience, with a tight labor market, ongoing government spending, and record highs in stocks, credit, and housing markets. Companies are increasingly focusing on using pre-tax income for investment expenditures rather than returning after-tax profits to shareholders through buybacks, which also helps to stimulate the economy.

It is also worth mentioning the sudden "raid" on the Japanese yen.

Before the disclosure of the US CPI data, the global foreign exchange market had already experienced considerable turmoil. Among these, calls for "selling yen" have grown louder, with traders re-establishing bearish positions on the yen.

Institutions such as Mizuho Securities, Nomura Securities, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group have even warned of the risk of the yen depreciating to 150 or lower, increasing the risk of Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange market again. The yen has depreciated by 4.5% over the past month, which has put officials and yen traders on high alert.

Additionally, the Indian stock market has also been "bearish."

According to the latest news, the renowned research institution Bernstein has downgraded its rating on the Indian stock market from neutral to underweight, citing continuous outflows of foreign capital and weak earnings.

It is important to note that Indian stocks remain among the most expensive in the world, with the MSCI India Index valued at approximately 24 times one-year forward earnings, more than double the valuation of the MSCI China Index. Bernstein analysts Rupal Agarwal and Cheng Zhang stated that compared to China and other emerging markets, India's market valuation has reached an all-time high, making it appear vulnerable.At the same time, Bernstein reiterated its tactical overweight stance on Chinese stocks, stating that the Chinese stock market will further rise under policy support.

According to Wind data, as of yesterday, in the first three trading days of October, the shares of stock ETFs surged by nearly 132.5 billion compared to September 30, with a total share count reaching 1.87 trillion, among which the shares of STAR 50 ETF (588000) and SSE 300 ETF (510300) both reached the level of 100 billion.

In addition, since the beginning of October, the financing balance has continued to rise. As of October 10th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's financing balance was reported at 826.813 billion yuan, an increase of 1.901 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was reported at 751.017 billion yuan, a decrease of 461 million yuan compared to the previous trading day; the combined balance of both markets was 1,577.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.44 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. This week has already increased by more than 148 billion yuan.