China's stock market kicked off with the Hong Kong stock market reopening first, and it immediately welcomed a strong start.

Although the A-shares will not reopen until next Monday, today the Hong Kong stock market opened first, and in just half a day, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 400 points at its peak, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3.2%.

However, for the first time, the incremental money supply in the United States turned negative, and Wall Street investment banks believe that the U.S. stock market will experience another significant drop.

Funds continue to flow out of the U.S. stock market, while China's economy is well supported, so it can be judged that funds will flow into A-shares on a larger scale.

In this Year of the Rabbit, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a major bull market.

01, Bearish on U.S. stocks

Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase is in a completely bearish state on U.S. stocks.

A lot of economic data in this period also shows that the U.S. economy is deteriorating. Although the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. still has a chance for a soft landing, it seems that a hard landing is the only possibility now.

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Recently, the U.S. service industry PMI index has fallen significantly. Since the service industry accounts for a high proportion in the United States, the significance reflected by the service industry PMI is far higher than that of the manufacturing PMI index.

Moreover, the sequential decline in retail sales data also indicates that consumption, which drives the U.S. economy, has experienced a significant decline.In the recently released financial reports of various banks, we have seen many banks increasing provisions, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the future economy.

Although the S&P 500 index has now risen to 4,016 points, analysts at JPMorgan Chase still believe that it could potentially drop to 3,600 points or even 3,200 points in the future.

Only when the index falls to a very low level will the Federal Reserve consider providing more support to the economy.

Now it seems that interest rates are set to continue rising, possibly increasing to 5% without stopping. It is hard to imagine that under such an interest rate environment, companies can still achieve good profits. Without the support of profits, the rise in stock prices is like a mirage.

02, Hong Kong stocks start the year with a bang

However, on the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the Hong Kong stock market welcomed the God of Wealth.

The Hang Seng Index opened with a gap, and by 11 a.m., it had reached its maximum increase of 424 points, up 1.92%. The maximum increase of the Hang Seng Technology Index also reached 3.5%.

Among them, new energy vehicles experienced a significant rise, with Li Auto's increase reaching 12%.

In the U.S. stock market, Tesla announced its annual delivery volume, which was 1.31 million units, setting a record for the company. At the same time, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that last year, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in our country exceeded 6.8 million units. For several months at the end of the year, BYD's production and sales volume far exceeded Tesla's.

The data indicate that China's new energy vehicles have already taken a leading position globally.Due to the leak of Xiaomi's car manufacturing plan, although Xiaomi denied that this was the final plan, it still caused Xiaomi's stock price to rise by more than 10% at one point. After this surge, Xiaomi's total market value reached 300 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In addition, during the Lunar New Year period, the box office on the mainland quickly exceeded 5 billion, with many movies achieving box office success, which also led to a significant increase in Hong Kong's film and television stocks.

Huanxi Media rose by 14.6%, IMAX China and Alibaba Pictures increased by 6%.

In terms of other technology stocks, Tencent's stock price rose back above 400 Hong Kong dollars, and Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan's stock prices also recorded significant gains.

03, On the Road to a Bull Market

During this Lunar New Year period, China's consumption has grown retaliatorily.

Due to the comprehensive relaxation of epidemic prevention, data in various aspects such as tourism, movies, and passenger transport have all shown a significant year-on-year increase.

China's M2 has been above 10% for more than half a year in a row, indicating that the market itself is not short of funds. Now with confidence, consumption can naturally achieve a significant increase, thereby driving a strong economic recovery.

However, the M2 growth rate announced by the United States in December showed a negative value for the first time, and the United States has completely turned off the printing press. With the decline of the US dollar index, funds will flee the US market to a greater extent.

Coinciding with China's strong economic recovery, it is believed that the main flow of global funds will be into emerging markets represented by China.Therefore, we can assert that after entering the Year of the Rabbit, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are on the path to a bull market.