On Tuesday, as traders awaited more signals regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the US dollar index fluctuated and ultimately closed down by 0.01%, at 102.47. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.0170%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.9670%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up by 0.3%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.4%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) gained 4%, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose by 1.8%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed down by 6.8%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) falling by 6.6%, Baidu (BIDU.O) dropping by 7.4%, and Bilibili (BILI.O) plummeting by 13%.

Last Friday's US employment report revealed an increase of 254,000 non-farm jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. The release of this data prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, suggesting that with the economy showing resilience, the Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts. The market estimates a possibility of 88% for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting, while the possibility of pausing rate cuts stands at 12%. This contrasts sharply with the previous market expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut.

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Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that although the labor market may be slowing down, it still shows strong momentum. He stated that if monthly job gains fall below 100,000, the Fed might consider faster rate cuts. On the other hand, Boston Fed President Collins believes that with weakening inflation trends, the Fed might take more rate-cutting measures.

The fluctuations in US Treasury yields have had a direct impact on gold prices. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield slightly rose to 4.028%, marking a fifth consecutive day of increases and reaching a new high of 4.057%. Concurrently, the 30-year Treasury yield also hit a new high of 4.342% since late July. The rise in Treasury yields has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby exerting pressure on gold prices.

The US dollar index closed at 102.45 on Tuesday, near the seven-week high of 102.69 set last week. The strength of the dollar has made gold, priced in US dollars, more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing demand for gold. The strength of the dollar also provides support as investors assess the prospects of further rate cuts in the US.

Despite increased expectations for a ceasefire, threats from Iran persist. The Iranian Foreign Minister warned Israel that any attack on its infrastructure would be retaliated against. Iran's role in this conflict has heightened market sensitivity to its oil supply, especially in the event of an escalation. Analysts generally believe that while Israel might consider attacking Iran's oil facilities, the likelihood of such an occurrence is relatively low.

Market expectations for US crude oil inventories have also affected oil prices. A Reuters survey forecasted an increase of about 2 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 4th, while gasoline and distillate inventories may decline. According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories increased by 10.96 million barrels during the week, gasoline inventories decreased by 557,000 barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels. These changes in inventory data indicate an increasing focus on the balance of supply and demand in the market.

Last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase of 3.9 million barrels in crude oil inventories, reaching 417 million barrels, while the market expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. This unexpected inventory build could further exert pressure on oil prices.

In the current market environment, investor sentiment is highly volatile. Tensions in the Middle East and the increase in US inventories put downward pressure on oil prices. At the same time, market expectations for future oil price trends have become more complex. While some analysts believe that oil prices may face upward opportunities due to geopolitical risks, others point out that if Israel focuses on other targets, oil prices could face significant downward pressure.

Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming official EIA crude oil inventory data and further developments in the Middle East situation. Oil price volatility may intensify with the release of news, making it particularly important to adopt a flexible investment strategy in the short term.