On Monday, as traders awaited further data, the US dollar index consolidated near a seven-week high, ultimately closing up by 0.01% at 102.49. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.0330%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.0040%. US stocks saw declines with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.94%, the S&P 500 index down by 0.96%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.18%. European stock indices mostly closed higher, with the German DAX 30 index down by 0.09%; the UK's FTSE 100 index up by 0.28%; and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.30%.

The US employment report for September showed an increase of 254,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%. This data reinforced the market's view that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts in the coming months. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November stands at 86%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has almost dropped to zero. Remarks from Federal Reserve officials also indicated that monetary policy should not be overly eased, emphasizing the resilience of the economy and the strength of the labor market.

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James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pointed out that further rate cuts should be data-driven, emphasizing the importance of patience. He believes that although the economic situation is good, premature or excessive policy easing could bring negative consequences. This cautious attitude has made market expectations for rate cuts more conservative.

The US dollar hovered near its seven-week high, and the strength of the dollar made gold, priced in dollars, more expensive for holders of other currencies. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4% for the first time on Monday, which means the opportunity cost of holding gold has increased, reducing its appeal. Investors reassessed future interest rate trends, leading to gold prices being under pressure.

As the situation in the Middle East becomes more complex, the market's demand for safe-haven assets may further increase. Investors often consider gold as a safe investment option when assessing risks, which may support gold prices to some extent.Federal Reserve officials have stated that it is not advisable to excessively loosen monetary policy. Recent employment data has been impressive, leading investors to reduce their expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. The US dollar remains strong, and US Treasury yields have broken through 4% for the first time in two months, also putting pressure on gold prices, which fell by 0.38% on Monday with a volatile retreat. Technically, gold is currently in a weak position in the short term, so today's focus for gold is the 4-hour pressure area above. After confirming effective resistance, short-term gold can be sold short.

Investors will also closely monitor upcoming economic data releases, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These figures will provide the market with further clues about inflationary pressures and may influence the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meetings will also be a focal point for the market.

The recently released US employment report has been strong, with the number of new jobs significantly exceeding expectations. This has led the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market now anticipates that there will be no further 50-basis-point rate cut this year, and the US economy will continue to grow, which will put pressure on inflation. This series of factors has weakened the market's expectations for future rate cuts, subsequently affecting oil prices.

Strong economic data typically boosts energy demand, and thus the market's expectations for future crude oil demand have improved. However, the strengthening of the US dollar also puts pressure on crude oil prices. A stronger US dollar usually limits the extent to which crude oil prices, which are priced in dollars, can rise.

In this context, the market is filled with uncertainty about the future direction of oil prices. On one hand, geopolitical risks may lead to supply disruptions; on the other hand, the prospect of a global economic recovery may also provide support for demand. Investors need to find a balance between these two factors.

Furthermore, the emergence of Hurricane Milton has also kept investors on alert. The hurricane may cause supply disruptions, and Chevron evacuated personnel from a platform and shut down production on Monday. Such sudden natural disasters pose a threat to the market's supply chain, further exacerbating the volatility of oil prices.