Recently, after the Federal Reserve concluded its interest rate reduction meeting, it once again shattered everyone's illusions. Although the non-farm data provided by the U.S. Department of Labor was lower than expected, the Federal Reserve still made a decision not to cut interest rates.

Although the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" Powell has softened his tone on the issue of interest rate cuts, he is actually just covering up the fact that the Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates.

Hearing this from me, you may be surprised, after all, the Federal Reserve's federal benchmark interest rate is still maintained between 5% and 5.5%. Where does the talk of raising interest rates come from?

In response to this, I can only say that whether the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates or not, everyone cannot just look at whether the Federal Reserve has increased the interest rates, but should look at the overall international environment.

It is important to know that the central banks of Canada and Europe have both cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve has remained unchanged. Then, relative to the central banks of Canada and Europe, the Federal Reserve has actually raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

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Yes, you are not mistaken, the Federal Reserve has actually raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Of course, this is an interest rate hike relative to the central banks of Canada and Europe.

From the perspective of the harvest theory, there is no difference between the central banks of Canada and Europe proactively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and the Federal Reserve proactively raising interest rates by 25 basis points. In the end, both will lead to a further strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

However, it seems that everyone turns a blind eye to this, thinking that if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, it does not mean that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, so the entire market seems to have no reaction to this.

What is even more magical is that after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, Europe, which should have depreciated against the U.S. dollar, has actually appreciated against the U.S. dollar, which surprised me.

Regarding the question of why the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, it may not be related to financial knowledge. It is more likely that everyone is more optimistic about the prospects of the European economy, so they are betting on Europe.To be frank, I am not optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States. Judging by the current conduct of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, it appears they are copying from the pages of American history textbooks, aiming to retrace the path of "splendid isolation."

Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the U.S. government is employing a suite of policies to construct a "tariff wall" for the American economy, preventing goods from other countries from entering the U.S. in order to protect American businesses.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are in line with the government's policies, seemingly attracting a substantial amount of capital into the United States, and then pinning that capital within the country to bolster the resurgence of America's economic industries.

Should the U.S. policymakers and elites have decided to follow the path of "splendid isolation," then it would be impossible for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this year.

Of course, when I say that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates this year, I am not absolutely certain that the Federal Reserve will not reduce the base interest rate points this year, but rather that the Federal Reserve will not engage in a genuine rate cut.

In other words, even if the Federal Reserve reduces the base interest rate points, it does not necessarily equate to a true rate cut. This is because whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates must be compared with the rate reduction幅度 of countries around the world.

Many people may not understand this.

Let's use an analogy: if countries around the world lower their interest rates by 75 basis points on the current rate basis, and the Federal Reserve only lowers by 25 basis points, then the United States' rate reduction is 50 basis points less than the global reduction.

In this way, we can easily conclude that the Federal Reserve has effectively raised interest rates by 50 basis points relative to the global level.

To put it bluntly, if the Federal Reserve's rate cut is lower than the global average rate cut, then the Federal Reserve's rate cut is not a true rate cut, but rather a disguised rate hike.From this, whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates or not, we cannot just look at the Federal Reserve's reduction of interest rates, but must compare it with the global situation.

Against the backdrop of global interest rate cuts, if the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rates, it is, to some extent, equivalent to raising interest rates.

If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in the future, and if the reduction is less than the global average, it can be considered as a rate hike.

Sometimes it feels like economics and finance are a kind of metaphysics; the trajectory of things that people see may not necessarily be the same as what you perceive in your mind.