Last Friday, due to the unexpectedly strong US September non-farm report, the US dollar index touched its highest level in seven weeks, eventually closing up 0.54% at 102.49. US Treasury yields across the board rose, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 3.9620%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.9280%. The three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.81%, the S&P 500 up 0.87%, and the Nasdaq up 1.22%, with the cryptocurrency concept sector leading the gains. Star tech stocks and popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.

The employment growth in the United States accelerated in September, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%. This data further eased market pressure on the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting. Specifically, non-farm employment positions increased by 254,000 in September, marking the largest increase in six months and far exceeding market expectations of 140,000. This strong employment report led the market to reduce expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in November from 28% before the non-farm data was announced to nearly 3%. The robust non-farm employment report seems to have locked in the possibility of only a 25 basis point cut in November. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, while refuting market expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut, also acknowledged that economic conditions are improving, indicating that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly.

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Driven by strong employment data, the US dollar index jumped to a seven-week high, putting pressure on gold prices. The strength of the dollar made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, with the gold price falling to around $1,631.95 per ounce at one point. Although subsequently supported by safe-haven buying, gold prices briefly rebounded to the $1,670 level, but ultimately still fell due to the strength of the dollar and US Treasury yields.

In addition to the impact of economic data, the tension in the global geopolitical situation also supported gold prices to a certain extent. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Lebanon, especially Israel's airstrikes on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, triggered market safe-haven sentiment. Israel's defense minister said that options for retaliation against Iran remain open, which has intensified market concerns about the situation in the Middle East. Despite the increase in geopolitical risks, the demand for gold in the market has been suppressed due to the strength of the dollar and the rise in US Treasury yields.Gold prices closed slightly lower last Friday after a period of intense volatility, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report doused expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in November. This, in turn, bolstered the U.S. dollar to a level not seen in over a month and a half, and U.S. Treasury yields surged to a near two-month high, overshadowing concerns about safe-haven demand due to tense geopolitical situations in the Middle East. Today, gold continues to focus on the 4-hour support area, and after stabilizing through consolidation, attempts to go long on gold can be made.

Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming economic data releases this week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, as well as the weekly unemployment benefit claims. These figures will provide further clues about inflationary pressures and may influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy.

The U.S. September non-farm employment report showed strong performance, with the largest increase in jobs in six months, demonstrating the resilience of the economy. This data not only raised market expectations for the U.S. economic outlook but also improved expectations for crude oil demand. The U.S. saw an addition of 254,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 140,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This series of data has led investors to rethink the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

The robust employment report has somewhat alleviated market concerns about economic weakness. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 341.16 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also rose, showing an optimistic sentiment in the stock market that provided support for oil prices. However, the rise of the U.S. dollar index to a level not seen in nearly a month and a half also raises concerns for crude oil bulls, as a stronger dollar typically exerts pressure on crude oil priced in U.S. dollars.As a member of OPEC+, Iran's oil production is approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 3% of the global total output. Should there be a disruption in Iran's supply, the market may face greater price volatility. The spare capacity of OPEC+ will allow other member countries to increase their production, which could potentially limit the extent of oil price increases to some degree.

In terms of Libya, concerns over supply have eased. The eastern government and the National Oil Corporation of Libya have stated that all oil fields and export terminals have resumed operations following the resolution of the dispute over the leadership of the central bank. This news helps to alleviate market worries about supply disruptions and further influences the trajectory of oil prices.

Oil prices retreated in early trading on Monday (October 7th), giving up some of last week's gains, with the largest single-week increase in over a year, due to escalating threats of war in the Middle East; a strong U.S. non-farm employment report and the continued rise in U.S. stocks also improved expectations for the economic outlook and crude oil demand. Today, attention is on the support area of the 1-hour upward trend line for crude oil, with a focus on going long after adjustments and stabilization. Additionally, this week will see a dense release of global economic data. Investors will be watching the U.S. CPI and PPI data, as well as the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. These data will provide clearer guidance on the economic outlook, affecting short-term oil price movements. Furthermore, the markets of the Asian powerhouse are expected to reopen after the Golden Week holiday, with investors anticipating further stimulus measures from the government.